Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker
andrewducker

Covid in Scotland - the bad news and the good

The bad news:
992 cases today in Scotland. 7-day average of 654 cases, which has doubled in the last 15 days.
Daily hospital admissions have also doubled - from 8 to 16. This took 10 days.

Both of these numbers are still low compared to the peaks we've had in October and January, but doubling that fast is worrying, to put it mildly.

The good news:
The vast majority of those cases are in the under 65s - 97.6% are under that age. 45-64 year olds are also not being that heavily hit, compared to people in their 20s. And we know that the danger is largely age-related.

So we might still be able to solely vaccinate our way out of this - but we might be in for another tightening of restrictions, to slow things until we can work our way through things. The data here to look for is the hospitalisation rate - because that will tell us whether we're going to overwhelm NHS capacity or not. As you can see from the second graph, those admissions are currently a tiny blip compared to how they were a few months ago. It's just that doubling speed that's worrying.







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