I had 5 minutes to myself, so of course I broke out a spreadsheet and worked out what percentages of the mail-in votes would need to go which way for the currently losing person to win it.
|State||Percentage of remaining votes the underdog needs to take the lead
|Arizona||Trump needs 57%|
|Georgia||Biden needs 55%|
|North Carolina||Biden needs 64%|
|Nevada||Trump needs 52%|
|Pennsylvania||Biden needs 59%|
Which I find somewhat reassuring. The recent mail-in votes from Pennsylvania have been coming in at 90% Biden, because Philadelphia is traditionally very Democrat-oriented. North Carolina looks likely to go to Trump. Nevada probably Biden (most mail-in votes have been going to Democrats). Arizona, on the other hand, has a history of mail-in votes as standard, so Republicans there have been voting that way - and that looks like it might be quite close. As usual, let me know if I've got anything obviously wrong. And, of course, all of this is futile - results will dribble in today/tomorrow and nothing I can say or do will change anything!
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are comments there.