Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker
andrewducker

A brief trip into the world...of tomorrow!

2020 is going to suck. Not for everyone, and not in every way, but for the country it will not be a happy time. It will be ameliorated by the fact that the Johnson government is currently intending to actually spend some money in The North, and that Brexit won't come into effect until 2021, but it's still going to be a stressful time as the Conservatives run the country badly, and it becomes obvious how bad a deal we're going to get.

2021 will be worse. Either we will have a terrible deal or we will be crashing out with no deal, or Johnson will break his pledge and continue negotiating for a merely awful deal. None of these will be any fun for anyone. We can look forward to a _lot_ of recriminations. I'm hoping enough people will blame the Conservatives to do them some serious damage. I strongly suspect that a lot of people will say "It wasn't my fault, I trusted that person over there who told me that it would all be ok."

2022-2024 will be hilarious for anyone watching from a safe distance, as the wheels entirely come off, and people realise that the UK has been a tiny island at the corner of the world for quite some time, which has done well through a mixture of helping people to avoid tax, and managing its slow decline from Empire, but isn't actually at all special.

The major question is whether Labour can get their act together enough to take advantage of this, along with enough people saying "We realise we were taken for a ride, and are up for a nice close relationship with Europe" to mean that the next election is less awful. I strongly suspect that I'll be voting SNP again.

I am _vaguely_ hopeful that either that election or the next one (in 2028) will go well enough for the country to turn in a positive direction. If Labour will actually back PR (as they are shifting towards - but they've promised that a lot in the past), and can come up with a leader and positive media-management strategy then that would be a good start.

Somewhere in all of this we'll have another Scottish Independence referendum, and possibly an Irish unification referendum. How those will go is anyone's guess. Too close to call. (Last polling shows Northern Ireland at 51% to join the republic, and in the Republic it's 65% to 19%. Scottish Independence is literally 50:50. Both will undoubtedly be swayed by the effects of Brexit.)

In any case, I've basically written off the next few years, and am pinning my hopes on the end of the decade, rather than the next year or two.



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