Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker
andrewducker

Sifting through the wreckage

So, on a vote increase of 1.2% the Conservatives gained 66 seats, and now have the largest majority they've had since 1992 (when they got 0.2% less votes and 59 more seats).

This is, of course, disastrous for the country.

Good things that happened
====
The SNP got 48 seats in Scotland.
The DUP leader lost his seat (and the DUP lost two of their ten seats, leaving the nationalists with a majority).
There are now more women MPs than ever before (over 1/3).

Who's fault is it?
====
Labour didn't understand that they did well in 2015 because a load of people lent them their votes. And then those people spent the last two years being told that they'd voted for a Brexit party, and that if they didn't support a socialist agenda they should go join the Tories.
The Lib Dems ran a terrible campaign - I've watched Lib Dem friends rant about this endlessly, and how frustrated they've been.
(And they both should have cooperated better. I'm looking forward to the analysis of how many seats could have been saved by better tactical voting.)
The voting system - If you look at the votes, Lab+LD+SNP+Green is over 50%, while Con+Brx is 45.6%. Under any reasonable voting system this would be a parliament with an anti-Brexit majority. I mostly blame Tony Blair for this, who was voted in in 1997 with a manifesto promise for reform, and then refused to do anything about it. I _still_ see Labour supporters saying that electoral reform would prevent a Labour majority, and therefore shouldn't be taken forward. As if a Labour majority every decade or two was worth Conservative majorities the rest of the time.

What next?
====
Well, parliament will meet soon (there's a recess from the 21st, but I assume that they'll meet before then), and presumably vote through the Withdrawal Agreement before the end of January. With a majority this large there's a small chance that Boris won't have to appease the ERG, but I am looking forward to seeing the reaction to all of the enabling bills.
And then we leave the EU.
And they'll work on the trade bill. Which won't be finished by the end of 2020, so that's another cliff edge. But it's now entirely the problem of the Conservative Party. Oh, everyone else who will be badly hit by whatever nonsense they come up with.
The SNP will undoubtedly push for a referendum between us leaving and the trade bill being signed. Whether they'll get it is going to be interesting. If they don't then that will only help fire things up. Nicola Sturgeon has said she won't hold a referendum illegally, but that doesn't mean she can't apply pressure in other ways. This one will be interesting. I don't know how the prospect of a trade border between England and Scotland will affect things.

Am I missing anything major?



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