Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker

Brexit: Where are we now?

Trying to get it straight in my head where are right now.

Theresa May seems to be at the end of the negotiation agreement, and has (almost) put together a withdrawal agreement which is acceptable to the EU (complete with NI Backstop).

This withdrawal agreement is absolutely unacceptable to the Brexit chunk of the Conservative Party. Who have said they will vote against it. This includes a fair part of her cabinet.

It is also pretty unacceptable to the Remain chunk of the Conservative Party. Who have utterly failed to vote against the leadership so far, so can sadly probably be ignored.

Labour have also said that any deal which only ties us to a temporary customs union is unacceptable. And that they will vote against it. However, bits of their party are either staunch Leavers or are so terrified of No-Deal that they will vote in favour of this deal.

The DUP have said that they will vote against it.

The SNP have said that they will vote against it.

And this needs to happen pretty-much right now, if they're going to get it out to the EU27 to ratify it.

I suspect that it's going to be pretty close on whether they can pass it. I'm really hoping they can't, and that parliament is able to hold the government to account.

Of course, we'll then have to see what happens next. My gut says that in a situation where Theresa May says "Fine, it's No-Deal then" there are enough competent MPs to force her out, in one way or another.

My stockpiling will begin in January, if we haven't gotten ourselves into a more sensible situation by then.

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