Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker
andrewducker

Where are we on Brexit?

No real news at the moment about Brexit. There's a lot of background ongoing murmuring, but no change. Britain still hasn't found a way to live up to the Good Friday agreement, polls continue to show a small (but consistent) lead for Remain, Boris continues to say "We can do this if we all think positive thoughts", but has no concrete proposals. Rees Mogg continues to spout horrific nonsense, while having a total of around 70 MPs who will back No Deal (out of 650) and no chance of actually getting it through. Oh, and the UK's customs proposals continue to not be acceptable to the EU.

However, my brain keeps latching on to Brexit, and to try and exorcise it for a few days, I thought I'd order the plausible results by my preferences.

1) Staying in the EU. Brexit is cancelled, we don't carry on with the idiocy any more. I can't see this happening through MPs saying "We are ignoring the fraudulent marginal advisory referendum", but I can see them either saying "We are rerunning the fraudulent marginal advisory referendum" or "We are replacing the fraudulent marginal advisory referendum with a general election".

2) We find a compromise agreement on Northern Ireland and enter the transition period. Nobody is happy - such is the way of compromises. We spend the next couple of years arguing with the EU about trade deals, which is long enough for Brexit to be cancelled (or turned into EEA membership). A few years from then we go back into the EU, only this time we're a member of Schengen, and don't have any of our other opt-outs, because the EU isn't going to let us get away with our nonsense any more.

3) Negotiations fail. We go no-deal next March. After about three days of awfulness even the people who stockpiled supplies realise how doomed things are. We frantically join the EEA. See the second part of (2)

4) Negotiations fail. We go no-deal next March. The government refuses to admit the sheer horror of its mistake. Things get very, very bad. They do a deal with the US rather than the EU, in an attempt to save face. Britain's trading status is destroyed, the economy is put back by a huge distance, inequality rockets, and the whole country goes to hell. Eventually there is an election of more sensible, and the new government joins the EEA (See (2)). But before that point lots of people die.

The only good news recently is that in the case of Brexit Scottish Independence has a majority and so does Irish Unification (by 56% to 40%). And while I'd be delighted to be cut free of the horror of Westminster, I feel enough sympathy with my friends in England that I'd prioritise getting Brexit stopped over Scotland getting Independence.



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