Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker

We are sliding towards No Deal.

I can't tell if Theresa May is engaging in bravado to try and hold on to her job, if she's actually lost the plot, or if this is a cunning plan to make it clear how incredibly stupid Brexit is.

She's made it clear that the Backstop the EU has proposed isn't acceptable the Britain, and put forward...well, nothing*. And without a backstop which upholds the Good Friday agreement the EU won't give us any deal at all.

And she's now saying that the white paper agreed at Chequers isn't an opening negotiation, it's the only thing that the UK will agree to. Totally ruling out further compromise.

Which, as it completely violates the four freedoms, the EU absolutely will not agree to. Barnier just tore it apart, while pointing out that the EU27 is united on this.

So, No Deal for all!

The government has announced that it is preparing dozens of notifications to let people know how to deal with the awfulness to come. Which will include dairy shortages, along with lots of large companies leaving the UK because their supply lines require friction-free trade**.

The question is, will the warnings be enough for The People to demand that our course changes? Or will it take us actually dropping out and the lorries grinding to a halt at Dover before we decide that maybe the EEA isn't so bad?

*There's some very handwavey stuff in the White Paper which basically boils down to "Blockchain will do it!". But certainly nothing which can actually be done in real life in the next few years.
**Honda at Swindon receives 2m components per day thanks to free movement of goods. After a no deal Brexit, to store the minimum 9 days' worth of components on site, they would need to erect the 3rd-largest building on Earth: 300,000 sq m = 42 football pitches. From

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