Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker
andrewducker

Post-midnight thoughts on Brexit

The UK is currently sublimating under the kind of heatwave that the UK doesn't get, the Conservative government is disintegrating (with the Minister of the Brexit department resigning), and between these two things I can't sleep.

So...
After the spectacular own goal in 2017 of calling an election and losing their majority, the Conservatives went into coalition with the DUP.
Which meant that they now had to come up with a solution to Brexit which:
1) Kept the DUP happy by not putting a border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain.
2) Kept the Good Friday Agreement by not putting a border between Northern Ireland and The Republic of Ireland.
3) Kept the Brexiter Conservatives happy by putting a hard border between the UK and Europe.

And also:
1) Kept a majority of all MPs onside.
2) Kept a majority of Conservative MPs onside.
3) Came up with a deal that the EU will accept.


The problem being that there is no such thing. If May swings towards Remain then Davis (and Rees Mogg/The ERG) will unseat her - which is what the resignation is leading into. Probably followed by Boris, who would also like to be Prime Minister.

And if she swings towards No Deal then the Remainers have said they'll do likewise.

There is no majority anywhere for any kind of alternative to remaining in Europe. So either we cancel Brexit or we tie ourselves in knots so much that we can't negotiate at all and we fall out of the EU with no deal by default in March.

(And no, Labour aren't much better. See this, this , and this).

None of which is a change from my last summary. Except that Britain has, finally, over two years since it held a referendum, put together a negotiating position for "what it wants". And discovered that there is no one thing which they can agree makes for a satisfactory Brexit. But we already knew that nobody knew what they were voting for.

I could, of course, be wrong here. Davis might have resigned because he's realised that May's deal is terrible for the UK, what with our economy being 80% services, and he's had a damascene conversion to Remain, which is going to be followed by other heavyweight* Conservatives, as they realise that Brexit is a fucking stupid idea and start swimming with the tide.
- Nope

But as it is, both May, and anyone who follows her, is in for an impossible job.

*Seriously though - are there any currently competent Conservative MPs in positions of power? My father's been a Conservative voter since the Winter of Discontent (except for 1997), and he's absolutely disgusted by the current lot. I'm sure we used to have _some_ competent Conservatives in the olden days?



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