Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker

Exponential Growth Is Awesome

I get a regular weekly email from Facebook telling me how Andy Ducker's Links is doing. And apart from a couple of blips* I get about 1% growth every week.

I'm on 462 followers right now, and unlike on Twitter**, I'm fairly sure that all of those are real people.

So I did a bit of maths. And for a growth rate of 1%, it will take me 760 weeks to reach a million followers. Which is only 14 years.

I mean, I bet there's an S-curve in there, with there being only so many people who find my kind of links interesting. But I wonder how high it goes.***

*I hit 250 followers, and two days later one of my images went viral and gave me about 200 extra followers. This was surprising.
**My Twitter followers used to turn up in regular drips of a few per week as well. And then that just stopped. I still get retweeted a fair bit, but Twitter is definitely less busy for me than it used to be.
***And also what effect Facebook algorithms have there. I can tell when their algorithms change, because I'll spend a few weeks with numerous links going wide, and then a few weeks with hardly any traction, and without any serious change in content. And presumably they treat the bigger pages differently from the smaller ones.

Original post on Dreamwidth - there are comment count unavailable comments there.

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