Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker

Brexit: Some thoughts on next steps

The court case has ruled that Article 50 must be invoked by parliament, not through royal prerogative. It's possible that this will be reversed at some level of appeal, but it doesn't look likely at the moment.

You can read the court ruling here, or a two-page summary here.

Which doesn't mean that Brexit doesn't happen - the majority of MPs are in favour of Remain, but given a very firm steer by their constituents how any of them are going to vote in the opposite direction? And further, if this does go through the House of Lords, how many of _them_ are going to back Exit?

Some people are holding out hope that people will realise how calamitous Exit will be and change their minds. And there's a little evidence for it, but not a lot.

Looking ahead, I have to say I have _no idea_ where we will be in two years, let alone five or ten.

(Best guess: We exit the EU, spend several years in complete turmoil, and rejoin the EU in ten years as a normal member, without any of the special advantages we currently get. Fingers crossed that Scotland doesn't get ejected along with Wales/England.)

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