"I bet Andrew Ducker that before May 4th 2033 the UK (or that part of the UK which stays with London after any devolution) will retain First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) for general elections. Further, no English county council/unitrary authority elections (of the type described in ) will switch system away from FPTP.
The person who loses will buy the winner a drink of their choice (within reason -- pints of champagne or bottles of aged whiskey are out) in a bar in the winner's home city... presence over video accepted if distance precludes attendance in person.
I agree with some of his reasoning, but believe that self-interest in supporting the good of individual parties will overcome worries about hypocrisy, and that having a fourth* party with a large chunk of popular support will make it even more obvious to people how broken the system is - and that having 40-odd percent of people voting for parties that are disadvantaged by the voting system is not sustainable over the long-term (i.e. 20 years).
Of course, if UKIP support crumbles by the time of the next election then this becomes much less likely. We shall see - and I shall try to remain optimistic.
*As I've discussed elsewhere, I'd love the Greens to get enough mainstream support to make this five. I don't see it any time soon though.
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are comments there.