And with 6 states to go, and 5 of those being battleground states, it's all been quite stressful.
I had 5 minutes to myself, so of course I broke out a spreadsheet and worked out what percentages of the mail-in votes would need to go which way for the currently losing person to win it.
State |
Percentage of remaining votes the underdog needs to take the lead
|
Arizona |
Trump needs 57% |
Georgia |
Biden needs 55% |
North Carolina |
Biden needs 64% |
Nevada |
Trump needs 52% |
Pennsylvania |
Biden needs 59% |
Which I find somewhat reassuring. The recent mail-in votes from Pennsylvania have been coming in at 90% Biden, because Philadelphia is traditionally very Democrat-oriented. North Carolina looks likely to go to Trump. Nevada probably Biden (most mail-in votes have been going to Democrats). Arizona, on the other hand, has a history of mail-in votes as standard, so Republicans there have been voting that way - and that looks like it might be quite close.
As usual, let me know if I've got anything obviously wrong. And, of course, all of this is futile - results will dribble in today/tomorrow and nothing I can say or do will change anything!
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are

comments there.