November 5th, 2020

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I've been awful at not watching the American election

And with 6 states to go, and 5 of those being battleground states, it's all been quite stressful.

I had 5 minutes to myself, so of course I broke out a spreadsheet and worked out what percentages of the mail-in votes would need to go which way for the currently losing person to win it.

State Percentage of remaining votes the underdog needs to take the lead
Arizona Trump needs 57%
Georgia Biden needs 55%
North Carolina Biden needs 64%
Nevada Trump needs 52%
Pennsylvania Biden needs 59%

Which I find somewhat reassuring. The recent mail-in votes from Pennsylvania have been coming in at 90% Biden, because Philadelphia is traditionally very Democrat-oriented. North Carolina looks likely to go to Trump. Nevada probably Biden (most mail-in votes have been going to Democrats). Arizona, on the other hand, has a history of mail-in votes as standard, so Republicans there have been voting that way - and that looks like it might be quite close. As usual, let me know if I've got anything obviously wrong. And, of course, all of this is futile - results will dribble in today/tomorrow and nothing I can say or do will change anything!
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