June 9th, 2017

Illuminati

So, those election results

Good news: Hung parliament!
Bad news: Conservatives + DUP coalition is the only one that can get a majority
Even worse news: DUP are, frankly, worse than the Conservatives, being the party who have been blocking marriage equality in Northern Ireland
Sad News: If it wasn't for Unionists in Scotland voting Conservative to "send the SNP a message*" we'd have the possibility of a Lab+SNP+LibDem+PC+Green alliance.

As it is, Theresa May wins this year's award for "Conservative MP holding a vote to get her party into line, and throwing the country into chaos when it goes wrong".

Chances of another election this year: High
Chances of more people voting tactically at the next one, and getting the numbers to push the Conservatives out: Who the fuck knows.
Chances of any negotiation of Article 50, which continues to count down, getting underway: Slim

Just to note:
Purely vote-wise, Lab+SNP+LibDem is over 50%. Fuck FPTP.

*A completely pointless one, as it's the Scottish Government who pushes for Independence, and this election doesn't change that.



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Illuminati

Interesting Links for 09-06-2017

Illuminati

Politics on the knife edge

This article talks about there having being only 2,227 votes necessary to make Corbyn Prime Minister. And also only 287 votes necessary to give the Conservatives a majority by themselves.

That's a total of 2,514 votes out of 46,000,000 people - 0.005%, to shift 11 seats between victory for one group and victory for another.

While any voting system has points where a shift of a few votes will tip things over the edge, FPTP seems particularly prone to this. By breaking things into 650 individual elections, you are going to get many more where things are incredibly close, and 3 votes means everything.

AMS/MMP (as used in Scotland for MSPs) uses much larger groups for the additional proportional representatives, so there's much less chance of an individual area being that close to a tipping point. And STV (also used in Scotland, for councils) also clusters representatives together, for a similar effect.

It just seems ridiculous that targetting such a tiny number of votes can trigger such a massive difference in result.



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