May 11th, 2010

Illuminati

There are never enough options. It's a curse we have to live with.

It is in the interest of the Conservatives to

form a coalition with the Lib-Dems
34(63.0%)
form a minority government
8(14.8%)
skip this round of government altogether
12(22.2%)

It is in the interests of the Lib-Dems to

form a coalition with the Conservatives
14(25.9%)
form a coalition with Labour (and others)
24(44.4%)
skip this round of government altogether
16(29.6%)

It is in the interest of Labour to

form a coalition with the Lib-Dems (and others)
28(50.0%)
skip this round of government altogether
28(50.0%)

My favoured result is

Conservative minority government
10(19.2%)
Con/LD coalition
9(17.3%)
LD/Lab/PC/SNP coalition
28(53.8%)
Con/Lab coalition
2(3.8%)
Something else which I shall explain in the comments
3(5.8%)

I am

from the UK and am finding all of this exciting
46(78.0%)
from the UK and so bored of elections I could cry
4(6.8%)
from outside of the UK and find this all fascinating
6(10.2%)
from outside of the UK and am completely fed up with not having anything to click on
3(5.1%)
shark rofl

Hmmm

If we get a LD/Con alliance then we clearly get Cameron as PM.

However, for a LD/Lab/SNP/PC alliance who do we get? We can't get Brown - so do we get another Labour MP? Will we get Clegg? I can see there being an awful lot of debate over what to do there. And I can't see Labour being happy to give the LDs a big boost by handing them that much extra publicity. Unless they want to make all of the austerity measures look like the LDs fault. In any case, it's going to be a gamble over whether the PM ends up looking very, very bad or very, very good.
Illuminati

If we had Proportional Representation

I'd have expected the Labour party to splinter around the time of the Iraq war.

I'd expect the Tory party to splinter the moment someone said "Europe".

We have broad parties full of people that don't like the views of many of the people they're associated with.  Once it becomes possible to elect smaller parties I expect many of them to head for the hills.

Working out how many votes "The Conservatives" or "Labour" will get at in a proportional system is not likely to get you a very useful result.

(Been meaning to write this for a few days, and finally spurred to it when someone else posted about it, sadly flocked.)

Edit: fjm has unlocked their post. Worth reading - she's a better writer than me.
Illuminati

Delicious LiveJournal Links for 5-11-2010

Illuminati

Interesting

Lots of resistance from both Liberals and Labour to a Lib/Lab coalition.  You can read it here.

Looks like numerous Labour people want the party to go off, lick its wounds, and work out where to go next, rather than going into a fragile coalition and tearing itself apart.  I can certainly see the merit in that.
sheldon, wikipedia

Withholding judgement

I'm waiting to see what the Lib Dems and Conservatives have agreed.

If they have managed to get the bottom end of Income Tax raised to £10,000 through, prevented the rise in Inheritance Tax exemptions, and stopped the ridiculous marriage giveaway then that's a good start. If they can get a referendum on voting reform in, then I'll actually be happy.

The Lib Dems were never going to get a majority. And that means working with one of the other parties in order to get some of what they wanted. Labour were refusing to negotiate (last rumour I heard was that ID cards were a major sticking point), so if they can get what they want out of the Tories then I'm right behind them.

The Tories cannot pass _anything_ without Lib-Dem backing. I'm hoping that this takes the worst edges off of them. If it doesn't - if they just back the Tories irrespectively and don't get electoral reform, then they deserve to go down in flames.

Now to wait for the details...

(Some stuff here, and Robert Peston's take here)