Andrew Ducker (andrewducker) wrote,
Andrew Ducker
andrewducker

There's only one thing I care about when it comes to Greece

I don't care how we got here*.

I don't care who's to blame**.

I care about how Greece can get from here to a situation that's sustainable, and in the long-term can lead to them being a prosperous nation.

This _does_ mean reform. A country needs to be able to manage its debt levels, raise enough taxes to pay for its welfare systems, invest in its infrastructure, etc. But it may also mean large quantities of aid if the other eurozone countries want it to remain in the Euro.

Eurozone countries cannot use deflation to make debt payments easier - if the UK had been in the Euro then we would have been much more fucked than we were. And the countries in the South are disadvantaged by the common exchange rate, just as German is advantaged by it.

Areas with a common currency need to move money from the parts that this helps to the parts that it hinders - and either Europe is going to have to learn this, and make allowances for it, or it's going to lose Greece, and then other countries the next time that this happens***.

In any case - if Europe can come up with a proposal that means that Greece can both stay inside the Euro _and_ have debts that it can manage, then I think it's probably in its interests to stay. And if it cannot (or will not) then it's definitely in Greece's interests to go, and so they should****.

*Well, I do. But only because understanding the past is useful in knowing how to get to a decent future.
**Well, I do. But blame is so nebulous that it's very easy for people on all sides to cast it wherever they like.
***This will happen again, and Europe really needs to have plans in place for it next time.
****So far, I haven't seen any signs that Europe has any proposals that will do this. If I've missed one, then please do point it out to me.




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